Hong Kong Asian investors started August in the same way they
ended July, with gains across markets that followed Wall Streets
lead, fuelled by a general sense of optimism about the economic
outlook.
Bets on the Federal Reserve calling it a day on its interest
rate hiking cycle have been a key driver of buying for weeks as
inflation continues to drop while the economy remains robust.
That has been compounded by Chinas recent promises of stimulus
measures to kickstart growth, as a string of data showed the
countrys post-Covid recovery has all but puffed out.
Traders are now keeping a close eye on earnings this week from
tech titans Apple and Amazon, and US jobs at the end of the week
that could provide an idea about the Feds thinking.
The central banks of Britain and Australia are also due to
announce rate decisions.
On Monday, Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee left open the
possibility of pausing or stopping interest rate hikes at the banks
next policy meeting in September.
Thus far were on the golden path and weve got to walk that line,
Goolsbee told Yahoo! Finance, referring to the path of lowering
inflation without triggering a major recession.
He said the slowdown in inflation was fabulous news, echoing
comments from Minneapolis chief Neel Kashkari, who called the
readings quite positive.
As we approach the middle of summer, there is a prevailing
belief among people on the street that the Federal Reserve has
probably made its final rate hike in the current cycle, said
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
This is due to the evident decrease in inflation pressures.
The current economic conditions, including decreasing inflation,
a pause in Federal Reserve tightening, and steady or increasing
growth, could create an ideal situation for the stock market.
All three main indexes on Wall Street ended on a positive note,
with the S&P 500 at a 16-month high.
And the rally filtered through to Asia, where Tokyo, Hong Kong,
Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila all pushed
higher.
Data out of China showing the countrys factory activity shrank
last month reinforced expectations the government will continue to
unveil economic support measures.
On Monday, officials announced a 20-point plan to boost
consumption, touching on housing, culture and tourism.
The announcement comes after top leaders last week said in a
meeting the economy was facing new difficulties and challenges and
agreed to implement precise and effective macroeconomic regulation,
strengthen countercyclical regulation and policy reserves.
With the mood among investors broadly positive, analysts who had
warned of another tough week for markets were changing their
outlooks.
Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley had been downbeat but now sees
more legs in the latest rally.
The challenges companies have endured stubborn inflation, weak
markets, and sluggishness internationally are no longer headwinds,
he said.
Now, were not only seeing tailwinds heading into 2024, but were
getting less disruptive reactions in the stock market following
earnings reports.
On currency markets, the yen weakened further as the Bank of
Japans decision to loosen its grip on monetary policy failed to
provide support.
The central banks tweak means its policy is still much looser
than others and observers say it will likely be so for some
time.
Key figures around 0230 GMT
Tokyo Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 33,418.53
(break)
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: UP 1.0 percent at 20,283.06
Shanghai Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,304.99
Dollar/yen: UP at 142.72 yen from 142.28 yen on
Monday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0986 from $1.0997
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2819 from $1.2834
Euro/pound: UP at 85.70 from 85.67 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $81.67 per
barrel
Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $85.27 per
barrel
New York Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 35,559.53 (close)
London FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 7,699.41 (close)
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